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CURRENCY RATE MOVEMENT - A. Lallungmuana
Oct 26, 2015
(muana97@rediffmail.com) October 15, 2015-ah hian Rs 64.82 leh Dollar-1 an intluk tawk vel mek a, Kum 10 liam ta 2005 kum laihawl velte kha chuan India Rupee 44 leh Dollar-1 an inhen tawk vel thin. Eng ram Currency pawh, a ram chhung mai bakah ram pawn lam thleng pawha Demand a san chhoh viau chuan chu Currency hlutna chu a sang sauh dawn lo thei lo tihna a ni. Ram hrang leh ram hrangte inkar Currency hlutna tur leh intluktawn dan tur hi fimkhur leh uluk taka bituk fel thin a ni a. Tin, interest rate, inflation leh exchange rates te pawh hi kalkawp chho tlat reng an ni bawk, a mal mal a thenhran hleih theih an ni lo. Reserve Bank of India hian Inflation khuahkhirhna atan Bank Rate Control-in, a hun takah Rate thar hman tur a puang mai thin. Stock Market atanga sum inlumlet vel pawh hian Currency hlutnaah nghawng a nei thin. India hi ram thangduang tak leh Industrial development lamah pawh hmasawn chak tak a nih avangin Global Investors-te leh Foreign Institutional Investors te (FII) hian Indian Stock Market chu, an ram sum tam tham tak tak chu Interest um a rawn Invest nan an hman thin avang leh Foreign Investors-te chuan Dollar, Euro, Yen, etc Crore tela an rawn luhpuite chu Rupee-a thleng (Convert) phawt a lo tul si avangin Rupee mamawhna a lo sang chho ta em em thin a, hei hian Dollar, Euro, Yen, etc lak ah Rupee Exchange Rate pawh a lo tisang chho ta thin a ni. A lehlamah Stock Market hi a sensitive em avangin ram pum huapa nawrhna, sawrkarna inthlak thut thut palh leh policy kal lai pawh thlak thut theih boruak leh nghelnghet lo ni awma hriatna, etc, ang chite pawh hian nasa taka a nghawng theih tho avangin 2011-12 vel a Anna Hazare pawlte’n Anti-Corruption Movement  nawrhna an huaihawt mup mup ang chite pawh khan Global Investor-te nasa takin a tichiai thei a, India  Stock Market a investment an neihsa mek lak chhuah mai duhna khawp boruak a lo thleng palh a nih phei chuan hman lawka Rupee an thleng sa hmang khan Dollar, Euro, Yen, etc thleng tur an zawng let leh sup sup dawn a, Rupee hlutna mek chu hun reilo te chhung pawhin nasa takin a tihhniam phah thei dawn a ni. Currency Rate intluktawnna bithliah danah hian thil chi hnih, Fixed Exchange Rate leh Free floating, a eng emaw zawk zawk hman theih ve ve a ni.  Free floating-ah hian Currency Exchange Rate chu Market Movement - Demand leh Supply azir leh khawvel huapa Investment leh Stock Market boruak chevel in a hringchhuak thin. Fixed Exchange Rate ah thung chuan Central Bank-in a tihdanglam hma lam zawng atan an ram Currency leh Dollar intluktawn dan tur rate an lo siam fel lawk tawp mai a ni. Entirnan, China chuan 1994-2005 inkar chhung zawng atana hman turin Yuan 8.28 leh dollar-1 hlutna chu a Fixed tawp mai a ni. Hei hi Pegged System a ni. Pawisa (Currency) hlutna nghawng danglam thei thil chi hrang hrangte zingah chuan heng inflation, interest rates, current account position/trade deficit, foreign capital outflow, political uncertainty, corruption, Government deficit te hi a langsar zualte an ni. Reserve Bank of India (RBI)-in Interest rate a tihsan emaw tihhniam emaw hian ram chhungah ram dang sum leh pai seng luhah nasa takin nghawng a nei thei. Ram dang mite tan India rate hman mek chu mahni rama sum invest aiin a hlawk zawk dawn a ni tih an chian phawt chuan Foreign Capital tam tham tak ram chhunga seng luh theihna a ni. A lehlamah rate hman mek chu tihhniam a nih erawh chuan Foreign Capital tam tham tak chu ram dang interest rate sang zawkah invest turin lakchhuah an lo ni ve thung ang. September 2015 thlatir lama US Federal Bank Committee-in interest rate tisang zawng a hma a la lo kha India tan thu lawmawm a tling, Federal Bank khan rate lo tisang ta se, India-in tlin leh tlin loa a tihsan ve a tul ang a, a tihsan loh chuan FII ten Indian Stock Market atangin an sum la chhuakin US lamah an invest mai dawn tihna a ni dawn si a. RBI hian remchanna a la ni maw, September 29, 2015 khan Governor Raghuram Rajan chuan Bank ten RBI atanga sum an puk thinna Repo Rate chu 7.25% atangin 0.50% bps in tihniam a nih thu a puang a, Repo Rate chu 6.75% a ni ta.  Hemi nghawngah hian Bank hrang hrangte pawhin home loan leh loan scheme danga interest rate te pawh RBI phut angin tihhniam an tum thu an puang zui ta bawk. Tin, Repo Rate bakah hian RBI hian a mamawh chuan Bank atangin sum a puklet ve leh theihna Reverse Repo Rate 5.75% leh Bank Rate 7.75% chungchang chu a rate bak hi tarlan rem loah dah rih phawt ta mai ila. Repo Rate tihhniam a nih chhan hi India Policy Maker ten ‘mipuiten Bank atanga loan tam zawk an lak theihna tur leh ram chhungah pawisa lengvel tam se, chu chuan hmasawnna (economic growth) thlen se’ tih duh leh beiseina vang a ni. A chhan engvang pawh lo ni ta se, Rupee hlutna a lo tlakhniam emaw, san emaw apiang hian RBI chuan ngun takin a lo vil reng a. Rupee hlutna a tla hniam ta lutuk emaw tla chak lutuk, nghawng tha lo nei khawp dawna a lanin RBI chuan Rupee tlahniam zel tur venna atan Dollar Note tam tham tak, a mamawhtute tan Market-ah a hralh chhuak chiam thin a, Dollar leng vel lo tam chuan Rupee hlutna tlahniam zel tur chu eng emaw chen a lo veng thei ta thin a ni. Amaherawhchu, hei hi Short Term Solution chauh a nih avangin Long Term Solution tur atan chuan Economic Reform leh Inflation Control,etc, leh Sawrkarin a tih tur dik tak a tih a tul tihna a ni. A lehlam ah RBI hian Dollar lakah Rupee hlutna chu duh aia a lo san luat palh theih thu-ah pawh ngun takin a vil reng a tul thin. Rupee hlutna a san viau chuan ram dang Export-ah nghawng a lo neih ve leh theih vang a ni. Foreign Importers te tan thil pangngai reng, Rupee hlutna lo san tak mai vang a, tun hma aia to zawka India Export-bungrua chu lei duh loh hun an lo nei ang a, Market-ah China, etc siam tha tak a lo tam tho dawn bawk si; hetiang a lo nih palh hlauh chuan IT Company, India sum lakluhna tha berah hian nghawng a nei pawithui hle dawn tihna a lo ni ve leh thung dawn si a. Pawisa hlutna tihhniam hian mamawh bik thilah chauh lo chuan, Indian Importers-te tan tun hma lam ai zawnga thil lakluh man tur a lo san dawn avang leh an Customer mipuiten a aiawh leh tlukpui lamah an pensan dawn avangin sum leh pai hmanral kawngah inhrek zawngin nghawng a nei dawn a; hei hian Economy ah nghawng tha a neihtheihna chin a awm. Indian Exporters-te tan erawh pawisa hlutna tihhniam chuan Foreign atanga India bungraw lo chaw luttute tan bungraw lak luh man chu a tunhma lam zawng aia a lo tlawm zawk dawn avangin, tun hma lama foreign thil lei ngam loten man tlawm chuan an lo lei ve ngam dawn avangin, Foreign bungrua Demand a lo sang ang a, thil hralh a nuamin a kal chak zawk dawn tihna a ni ve thung ang chu. Engpawh nise, Currency Rate Movement hian mipui mimir, khawtlang leh ramah nasa taka nghawng a neih theih dan hi a thuphung tal chuan hriat ve a tul e.

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